TrendAviv Why is Elbit Systems relevant for TrendAviv?
Because it is one of the strongest Israeli flagship equities and ties local market behavior to global defense demand themes.
Equities
[Horizon: T+1 Close]
BUY
Elbit Systems ESLT
Forecasting and modeling
Latest reference level
881.17
Active-horizon target
885.26
+0.46%
Raw interval (bands)
S1 823.34
R1 939.00
R1 939.00
Volatility (σ)
47.4%
Assessment (Yesterday for Today): 877.12
Model quality (out-of-sample)
86%
Out-of-sample sample: 200 sessions
Why this asset matters
Elbit Systems is one of the most visible Israeli defense and aerospace names and a useful bridge between the local market and global security-demand narratives. As a public page, this asset is less about a single headline and more about reading how a flagship Israeli defense stock is behaving inside the current market regime.
What usually moves this asset
Elbit is usually influenced by defense-spending expectations, backlog and contract news, regional risk, global aerospace-defense sentiment, and broader Israeli equity tone.
How to read this page
Use the public signal here as a short-horizon read on a flagship Israeli defense name. It should be judged together with volatility, event sensitivity and the broader local equity backdrop.
Methodology and dashboard reading (Model Card)
Model architecture:
Tree-ensemble architecture (Random Forest / gradient-boosted logic) built on price structure, volatility regime, macro-relative features, cross-asset context and sentiment inputs. For non-FX assets, the model is not centered on rate differentials alone.
Tree-ensemble architecture (Random Forest / gradient-boosted logic) built on price structure, volatility regime, macro-relative features, cross-asset context and sentiment inputs. For non-FX assets, the model is not centered on rate differentials alone.
Horizons (Targets):
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: asset_model_targets_1m_1y_nonfx
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: asset_model_targets_1m_1y_nonfx
Validation:
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.
- Entry: At spot price (snapshot before model calculation). Exit: At active-horizon close.
- Divergence: If the technical trend is falling but the signal is BUY, the model has detected a local oversold condition and is trading a rebound (mean reversion).
- Execution risk: The signal is not investment advice and does not include sizing. The model does not account for broker spreads, slippage, or carry costs (swap/rollover for FX).
- News risk: At extreme risk sentiment (GDELT), raw bands are not calibrated for outliers. The probability of fat tails increases.
1. Current market regime (Technical & Macro View)
Heuristic regime gauges
1W
Strong growth
1M
Strong growth
6M
Neutral
Heuristic regime display for page context, not a price-return backfill.
Heuristic regime indicators
Regime oscillator Displayed as a heuristic regime oscillator for page context. In the current version, this is not a full classical RSI calculation from the complete indicator pipeline.
90.0 (Overbought)
Trend-bias proxyBullish
Macro / carry biasBelow SMA 50/200
Volatility (σ)47.4%
Display heuristics for current regime reading. Not a full classical technical-indicator calculation.
Volatility (σ)47.4%
Macro factors (Percentile Score)
Values are normalized from 0 to 100
Sentiment (GDELT NLP)
Tension indexN/A
StatusData unavailable
Source: GDELT Project API
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.
2. Deep quantitative analytics
Historical seasonality
This panel is temporarily hidden while historical monthly returns are being rebuilt from the same source-aligned series used by the model.
A real seasonality heatmap will return after monthly returns are recalculated from the same source-aligned history used by the model.
Medium-term continuation estimate
For indices, equities, bonds and commodities, the 1M-1Y block is shown as a continuation of the 30-trading-day ML anchor, not as an FX-style CIP fair-value model.
Medium-term scenario: 1,012.55
Inputs: 30-trading-day ML anchor + medium-term continuation profile
30D anchor: 1,012.55
Extension profile: Anchor continuation with volatility widening
Current level: 881.1730D anchor: 1,012.55
Extension profile: Anchor continuation with volatility widening
Medium-term scenario: 1,012.55
Mean-revertContinue
Gap versus 30D anchor: 0.00%
Model verdict: Balanced continuation
3. ML model assessment (Predictive Analytics)
Historical validation: model forecast vs reality
Bands are nominal (raw). Current empirical out-of-sample coverage: 90.5%. The model is still being calibrated.
For historical validation, this chart uses the same source as the model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance. This removes cross-source shift.
Return-space check: predicted vs realized active-horizon move
This view removes the false level-lag effect and shows the predicted change from the previous close.
ML model summary (tree ensemble)
Analyzing macroeconomic data, the ML model detects a confident bullish (uptrend) regime on the medium-term horizon. The news-sentiment layer is unavailable in this refresh and is excluded from the narrative interpretation. RSI (90.0) confirms the local structure.
Active-horizon signal: BUY
Return to target: +0.46%
Return to target: +0.46%
Attention (Risk calibration):
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 90.5%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 90.5%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).
Directional model accuracy estimate 59.5%
Empirical coverage 90.5%
MAE edge Baseline (naive forecast) = tomorrow's price equals today's price. Edge = (MAE_naive - MAE_model) / MAE_naive.
MAE Model: 9.7926
MAE Naive: 9.5366+2.1% Edge
MAE Model: 9.7926
MAE Naive: 9.5366+2.1% Edge
Out-of-sample sample Based on 200 recent out-of-sample sessions shown on this page. Small samples can materially overstate or understate stability.200 sessions
4. Probabilities and trading signals
Close probability over a 30-trading-day horizon Mode: Normal (Calm)
Estimate of the probability that price closes above or below target levels exactly after 30 trading days (T+30 sessions).
Calculated via Gaussian CDF N(μ, σ). Does not account for skewness or fat tails during geopolitical FX shocks.
Close ABOVE level (Upside)
Level R1 (939.00)73%
Level R2 (952.22)69%
Close BELOW level (Downside)
Level S1 (823.34)6%
Level S2 (810.12)5%
Trading interpretation of the signal:
- Instrument: ESLT
- Entry: At current session close (04:30).
- Exit: At active-horizon close (26.10).
- Model: BUY (Expected return: +0.46%)
Signals are produced exclusively by the ML core and are not investment advice.
Attention: The daily forecast (left) is displayed as direct horizon estimates for each trading day up to T+30. The long-horizon block (right) is a structural scenario layer, so the trajectories can diverge.
Short-horizon ML expectations (daily)
| Date | ML target | Raw interval (bands) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 (Mon) | 885.26 | [843.25 - 929.37] | BUY |
| 27.10.2026 (Tue) | 889.37 | [830.27 - 952.68] | BUY |
| 28.10.2026 (Wed) | 893.50 | [821.34 - 972.01] | BUY |
| 29.10.2026 (Thu) | 897.65 | [814.47 - 989.32] | BUY |
| 30.10.2026 (Fri) | 901.82 | [808.92 - 1,005.39] | BUY |
| 02.11.2026 (Mon) | 906.01 | [804.28 - 1,020.60] | BUY |
| 03.11.2026 (Tue) | 910.21 | [800.34 - 1,035.16] | BUY |
| 04.11.2026 (Wed) | 914.44 | [796.95 - 1,049.25] | BUY |
| 05.11.2026 (Thu) | 918.69 | [794.00 - 1,062.95] | BUY |
| 06.11.2026 (Fri) | 922.95 | [791.42 - 1,076.35] | BUY |
| 09.11.2026 (Mon) | 927.24 | [789.15 - 1,089.49] | BUY |
| 10.11.2026 (Tue) | 931.54 | [787.15 - 1,102.42] | BUY |
| 11.11.2026 (Wed) | 935.87 | [785.38 - 1,115.19] | BUY |
| 12.11.2026 (Thu) | 940.21 | [783.83 - 1,127.80] | BUY |
| 13.11.2026 (Fri) | 944.58 | [782.45 - 1,140.30] | BUY |
| 16.11.2026 (Mon) | 948.97 | [781.25 - 1,152.69] | BUY |
| 17.11.2026 (Tue) | 953.37 | [780.19 - 1,164.99] | BUY |
| 18.11.2026 (Wed) | 957.80 | [779.27 - 1,177.23] | BUY |
| 19.11.2026 (Thu) | 962.25 | [778.48 - 1,189.40] | BUY |
| 20.11.2026 (Fri) | 966.71 | [777.80 - 1,201.52] | BUY |
| 23.11.2026 (Mon) | 971.20 | [777.22 - 1,213.59] | BUY |
| 24.11.2026 (Tue) | 975.71 | [776.75 - 1,225.64] | BUY |
| 25.11.2026 (Wed) | 980.24 | [776.37 - 1,237.66] | BUY |
| 26.11.2026 (Thu) | 984.79 | [776.07 - 1,249.66] | BUY |
| 27.11.2026 (Fri) | 989.37 | [775.85 - 1,261.64] | BUY |
| 30.11.2026 (Mon) | 993.96 | [775.71 - 1,273.61] | BUY |
| 01.12.2026 (Tue) | 998.58 | [775.64 - 1,285.59] | BUY |
| 02.12.2026 (Wed) | 1,003.21 | [775.64 - 1,297.56] | BUY |
| 03.12.2026 (Thu) | 1,007.87 | [775.70 - 1,309.53] | BUY |
Long-horizon structural expectations
| Horizon end | ML target | Delta | Raw interval (bands) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.01.2027 (1 quarter) | 1,032.72 | +17.20% | [774.14 - 1,350.22] | BUY |
| 25.04.2027 (6 months) | 1,063.74 | +20.72% | [668.21 - 1,610.24] | BUY |
| 25.10.2027 (1 year) | 1,130.44 | +28.29% | [553.88 - 2,061.84] | BUY |
Long horizons are shown as a structural scenario layer built from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift. Read them separately from the short-horizon ML forecast.
5. Research sandbox (Illustrative sensitivity)
Stress-test calculator (What-If Analysis)
Illustrates linear sensitivity to shocks (based on heuristic weights). Under stress, the risk corridor widens (volatility).
Short-horizon ML forecast (up to 30 trading days)
Long-horizon structural scenario (up to 1 year)
6. Interactive chart (TradingView)
Attention: the base model calculation uses TASE / Yahoo Finance. The chart below shows the TradingView feed (TASE:ESLT), so small quote differences are possible.
Related market pages
FAQ
How should I read an active-horizon signal on ESLT?
As a short-term directional lean into the currently displayed horizon close, not as a complete long-term fundamental view.
Why can event risk matter a lot here?
Because contract news, geopolitical developments and defense sentiment can move the stock quickly.
Why compare it with TA-125 or TA-35?
To see whether the name is moving with the broader market or on stock-specific leadership.